OBS Report: Analysing the future of the floral industry (2025-2030)
The flower industry faces major challenges
- The floral sector has generated between 31 and 39 billion dollars in revenue in 2025. Spain ranks 13th among the largest exporters. However, margins are very small.
- Flower purchases are becoming less seasonal and more ‘de-gendered’. Men are increasing their purchases by 22%.
- Buyers are rejecting standard flowers and seeking authenticity, imperfection, asymmetry and exotic flowers. This poses a logistical challenge. AI will be vital in resolving the profitability crisis, optimising delivery routes and reducing biological waste.
February 2026. OBS Business School, an institution belonging to the Planeta Formación y Universidades higher education network, publishes the report Analysing the Future of the Floral Industry, prepared by professors Lucía Somalo and Claudia Núñez, a market that generated between USD 31 billion and USD 39 billion globally in early 2025 and stands as one of the most labour-intensive employment engines in the agricultural sector. However, beyond business, flowers are culture in its purest form and, above all, a powerful vehicle of symbolism. They are not useful in the practical sense of the word, but their value lies in something much deeper: the social, emotional and aesthetic meanings we share. Flowers represent love, mourning, celebration, care, apology or a simple ‘I remembered you’.
Historically, the sector operated under a predictable stability, in which demand aligned with social rituals and biological cycles. However, the socio-economic transformation of the late 20th century has led to a complete deseasonalisation of the market. Through the use of high-tech greenhouses and extreme cold logistics that do not allow for interruptions, the industry has managed to separate the product from its geography and natural timing. Flowers have evolved from being a biological product to becoming a global consumer good. However, this efficiency has led to a paradox of very tight margins and increasing vulnerability (the net profit of retail florists is at critical levels of 3-5%). Factors such as climate and energy pressure, inflation and last-mile logistical challenges have forced the sector to face constraints, driving operational and strategic restructuring.
Did you know...?
The first major speculative bubble in modern history was known as Tulip Mania and took place in the Netherlands between 1634 and 1637. At the time, the value of tulip bulbs soared to extraordinary levels—equivalent to the cost of mansions and land—fuelled by a wave of social fascination that evolved into speculation. The market collapse in February 1637 not only ruined thousands of investors, but also paved the way for the emergence of futures markets. That need to trade the value of a flower that had yet to bloom laid the foundations of today’s financial economy.
The flower industry is currently at a turning point. Climate and energy pressures, with their implications for costs and sustainability, are no longer a distant threat but a daily reality that demands urgent adaptations in production. At the same time, the digital models that emerged strongly in the last decade are undergoing a forced review.
While the symbolism of the flower remains unchanged, its physical support has gone from being a traditional and seasonal system to becoming one of the most complex and fragile industrial machines in global trade. The major hubs for flower production and distribution are in the Netherlands, Colombia, Ecuador and Kenya (Spain ranks 13th among the largest exporters). However, today it is a double-edged sword: on the one hand, this geographical hyper-concentration allows for economies of scale and the standardisation necessary for the mass market; on the other hand, it creates a systemic dependency where any climatic, health or political disruption would cause a shockwave that would destabilise prices and supply worldwide. Particularly in the Spanish context, the situation is twofold. The productive sector is quite strong, with significant growth in the export of flowers and live plants, which underlines its quality and competitiveness. Milestones such as Valentine's Day alone account for up to 15% of the annual turnover of Spanish florists, but the challenge is not only to increase sales volume on specific days, but also to encourage a change in consumer habits that elevates flowers to a more everyday, recurring and conscious element in people's lives.
Flower consumption
The cultural transformation driven by the younger generations is a key driver of this change. For them, flowers transcend their role as an occasional gift or luxury item and become an element of self-care, personal expression and digital content (they already represent 38% of the total market in European urban centres). Buying flowers for oneself has become normalised to the point of being on a par with other wellness routines such as mindful eating or interior decoration. Furthermore, while historically flowers were a symbol of femininity or served as a tool of conquest that positioned men exclusively as passive buyers and women as the ultimate recipients, in recent years there has been a “degenderisation”. Flower purchases by men have grown by 22% in the last year. Furthermore, among millennial men, floristry is positioning itself as a prestigious profession, comparable to signature cocktail making or haute cuisine.
The new demand rejects industrial standardisation and values authenticity, imperfection and ethical consistency. Interest is shifting from the flower as a physical object to the experience, which explains the rise of flower bars and co-creation workshops. Social media has turned a bouquet of flowers into part of a complete narrative: how it is purchased, how it is arranged, where it is placed in the home and even how it wilts. It has become an extension of one's own identity.
This creates new opportunities for florists if they know how to offer selections that deeply connect with the buyer's values; floral products that are “Instagrammable”. This means designs that capture visual attention and carefully crafted packaging, conceived as part of the ritual and shared experience on social media. The emphasis on home subscriptions and personal wellbeing also opens up a new field of growth. And, of course, major events such as weddings continue to be of great importance, where asymmetrical bouquets, unexpected colour combinations, imperfect greens and the use of wild or less traditionally elegant flowers are increasingly popular.
The flower under scrutiny
A crucial turning point in this dynamic has been the resurgence of public debate on the use of pesticides in floriculture. The absence of legal limits comparable to those for food in terms of chemical residues in flowers has become apparent. Once historically associated with values such as love, care and celebration, flowers are now shrouded in suspicion, concern and moral questioning that invites reflection. Buyers, for their part, are increasingly demanding transparency about the origin, cultivation processes and environmental impact of flowers.
The future of the floral industry
In a market so laden with symbolism, any logistical hiccup—a damaged flower or a late delivery—is not perceived as a technical error, but as a breach of the trust that the customer has placed in the purchase. For this reason, the future of digital floral commerce seems to be moving towards more hybrid and realistic models. The path to profitability lies in balancing cultural ambition with an achievable scale, logistics that recognise the physical limits of nature, and a much closer relationship with production networks.
Artificial Intelligence will become the ultimate tool for solving the profitability crisis of perishable products. E-commerce will evolve towards structures that use Predictive AI to synchronise real-time demand with local production. This will not only optimise delivery routes to ensure freshness in that critical last mile, but will also reduce biological waste through algorithms that anticipate trends to make the most of the entire product.
